On the impact of feeding cost risk in aquaculture valuation and decision making
研究随机饲料成本对水产养殖决策的影响，用大豆期货推断三文鱼饲料价格，发现考虑随机成本的决策规则表现更优且计算成本可忽略。
We study the effect of stochastic feeding costs on animal-based commodities with particular focus on aquaculture. More specifically, we use soybean futures to infer on the stochastic behavior of salmon feed, which we assume to follow a Schwartz 2-factor model. We compare the decision of harvesting salmon using a decision rule assuming either deterministic or stochastic feeding costs. We identify cases, where accounting for stochastic feeding costs leads to significant improvements as well as cases where deterministic feeding costs are a good enough proxy. Nevertheless, in all of the cases, the newly derived rules show superior performance, while the additional computational costs are negligible. In conclusion, we recommend to use decision rules taking stochastic feeding costs into account.