Challenges to Disinflation: The Brazilian Experience
回顾巴西两次高通胀和反通胀过程，发现财政可持续性担忧导致通胀预期脱锚，反通胀代价高昂且伴随衰退，当前类似困境预示未来挑战。
ABSTRACT: We review two previous bouts of high inflation and disinflation since Brazil adopted inflation targeting. In both episodes, fiscal sustainability concerns were present and inflation expectations became unanchored despite substantial monetary policy tightening. Disinflation and the reanchoring of expectations took time and proved costly, as both episodes entailed a recession. They required tight monetary policy combined with critical shifts toward structural economic reforms and sound fiscal policy. The ongoing episode features the same fiscal concerns and unanchored inflation expectations. This suggests the path ahead for disinflation will be challenging, unless policies change direction. We also speculate whether the Brazilian experience can provide insights for other countries.