Immigrating into a Recession: Evidence from Family Migrants to the United States
研究发现，抵达美国时失业率每上升1个百分点，家庭移民的年工资收入短期下降4%，长期下降2%，主要源于职业降级、时薪降低和工时减少，但移民会借助家庭和同乡网络缓解冲击。
We analyze how economic conditions at the time of arrival affect the economic integration of family-sponsored migrants in the U.S. Our identification strategy exploits long waiting times for family-sponsored immigration visas that decouple the migration decision from economic conditions at the time of arrival. A one pp higher unemployment rate at arrival decreases annual wage income by four percent in the short run and two percent in the longer run. The loss in wage income is the result of substantial occupational downgrading, lower hourly wages, and a reduction in working hours. Family migrants who immigrate into a recession draw on migrant and family networks to mitigate the negative labor market effects. As a result, they take up occupations with higher concentrations of fellow countrypeople. They are also more likely to reside with family members, potentially reducing their geographical mobility.