Activity Shocks and Corporate Liquidity: the Role of Trade Credit
利用法国供应商支付违约的日度数据，以新冠疫情为外生冲击，从理论和实证上揭示贸易信贷融资如何放大活动冲击对企业流动性的影响，发现净贸易信贷头寸每增加一个标准差，企业违约概率在封锁期间上升10%。
Abstract We show both theoretically and empirically how trade credit financing may magnify the impact of activity shocks on corporate liquidity. Using unique daily data on payment defaults on suppliers in France, we quantify the magnitude of the short-term cyclical liquidity stress induced by trade payment obligations, exploiting the COVID-19 crisis as an exogenous shock. A one-standard-deviation rise in net trade credit position increases firms’ default probability by 10% during the lockdown. We find higher impacts for downstream sectors – up to 30% increase in the retail trade – for financially constrained firms, and a contraction in investment.