What Drives House Prices in Europe?
研究了欧元区国家房价波动的驱动因素，发现房价与收入的长期关系以及利率和住房供给的短期效应能很好拟合数据，并提出了一个基于模型的失衡指标，显示外推性房价预期在投机泡沫形成中起重要作用。
Abstract Boom‐and‐bust cycles in the housing market pose a threat to macroeconomic and financial stability, thus calling for a timely assessment of imbalances. This work sheds light on the drivers of house price dynamics in some euro area economies, investigating the risks of overheating. We show that an Error‐Correction‐Model (ECM) featuring a long‐run relationship between house prices and income and short‐run effects of interest rates and housing supply fits the data well in most cases. We then propose a novel model‐based misalignment indicator and find that extrapolative house price expectations play an important role in the build‐up of speculative bubbles.