Gasoline price changes and consumer inflation expectations: Experimental evidence
通过实验发现，汽油价格波动会影响消费者通胀预期，但影响较小且不对称，对价格上涨的反应强于下跌；俄乌冲突后汽油价格飙升对短期预期影响显著，但后续下跌影响不大。
Using an experimental approach, we show that inflation expectations respond to gasoline price fluctuations. The effect, however, is small compared to other goods (food, durable goods) and not disproportionately large relative to the expenditure share of gasoline in households' basket. The effect also weakens with the forecast horizons and displays substantial asymmetry: inflation expectations respond significantly more to positive than negative gasoline price shocks. A counterfactual exercise suggests that while the sharp rise in gasoline prices that followed the Russian invasion of Ukraine contributed substantially to short-term inflation expectations dynamics, the subsequent decline in gasoline prices did not.