Briefing: How a mutiny became a(nother) coup: The politics of counterinsurgency and international military partnerships in Niger
本文分析2023年7月尼日尔政变中安全部队支持政变的原因，认为政变领导人通过反叛乱和主权意识形态动员获得支持，而非仅靠传统理论解释。
Abstract This briefing explores the factors that led to the consolidated position of the Nigerien Security and Defence forces in support of the coup d’état launched the night of 26th July 2023. The initial blockade of the former President’s palace by the head of the Presidential Guard and 350 of its members looked like a mutiny. However, instead of moving swiftly to end the blockade, commanders from across the security forces appeared on national television that night to announce a coup. We show how dominant theories that have been used to explain the coup’s (unlikely) success, including those relying on patrimonialism and coups as intra-military coordination games, do not adequately explain the support for the coup across rank and file, and the direction the coup took once announced. We argue that this coup cannot be fully explained without considering how the coup leaders advanced powerful ideological messages to garner support. By making the coup about ‘correcting’ the government’s counter-insurgency strategy and regaining Niger’s sovereignty through the removal of French counter-terrorism troops from the country, members of the military believed that everyone else would support the coup, thus making it less likely that they would resist the coup leaders.