Can graphene fuel a transformative change in energy storage technologies? A scenario analysis for the next two decades
通过德尔菲调查和专家访谈，构建了石墨烯在电化学储能领域未来二十年的三种演化情景，挑战了其近期变革性影响的共识，揭示了技术、战略和系统层面的挑战。
In this article, we explore the transformative potential of graphene in electrochemical energy technologies over the next two decades. Using a two-round Delphi survey and 28 expert interviews, we construct three distinct evolutionary scenarios: 1) Current state: graphene has made notable technical advancements, but its transformative potential is limited to “nice-to-have” functionalities, 2) Projected state: graphene's technical progress and adoption of “nice-to-have” functions in energy storage devices will continue, suggesting a gradual evolution, 3) Ideal state: graphene's technical barriers are surmounted, and its transformative capacities are unleashed. Our study's findings challenge the prevailing consensus, which suggests that graphene will have a transformative impact in the near term. Instead, we highlight the complex balance between “nice-to-have” functionalities and genuine transformative capacities. Additionally, we underscore the persistent technical, strategic, and systemic challenges that could shape graphene's trajectory. Finally, we provide an in-depth, analytical assessment and practical implications for both the potential of graphene in energy storage devices and broader innovation generalization dynamics.