Inflation measurement in the presence of stockpiling and consumption smoothing
研究发现，囤货行为导致链式价格指数向下漂移，而消费平滑则引起向上漂移，并引入随机模拟方法检验多边指数能否有效控制链漂问题。
A chained price index is said to suffer from chain drift bias if it indicates an overall price change, even though the prices and quantities in the current period have reverted back to their levels of the base period. The empirical relevance of this bias is well documented in studies that apply sub‐annual chaining to scanner data. There it is shown that stockpiling can lead to downward chain drift bias. The present paper draws attention to the fact that smoothing consumption causes substantial upward chain drift. In addition, this study introduces a stochastic simulation approach that is consistent with both, stockpiling and consumption smoothing. A “stress test” is conducted that examines whether rolling window variants of multilateral indices (GEKS, TPD, and GK) effectively curtail the chain drift problem.