Honey, the Fed Shrunk the Equity Premium: Asset Allocation in a Higher-Rate World
分析利率上升对股票、债券和另类投资回报的影响，发现高现金利率时期股票超额收益更低，并探讨现金加流动性替代策略的价值，为投资者在高利率环境下的资产配置提供参考。
The future path of interest rates is highly uncertain, but we can at least be fairly confident that the level of rates will be substantially higher in the medium term than it has been in recent decades—in the United States and many other major economies. What, if any, are the implications for asset allocation? Does a higher-cash-rate tide lift all asset return boats? This article presents a simple empirical analysis covering stocks, bonds, and alternative investments and compares those historical patterns to yield-based expected returns as of early 2024. One result is clear: Equity markets have earned slimmer excess returns on average when the cash baseline is higher. The author discusses the role of so-called cash-plus liquid alternative strategies—overlooked beneficiaries of higher cash rates—and concludes with a simple allocation case study. In a higher-rate world that investors haven’t seen for many years, diversification away from equities may prove to be especially valuable.