How does the dramatic rise of nonresponse in the Current Population Survey impact labor market indicators?
研究发现，当前人口调查拒答率十年间翻了三倍，主要来自相邻月份拒答但其他月份应答的家庭；拒答上升压低了劳动参与率和就业人口比，但对失业率影响很小，且非应答偏误解释了2000-2020年劳动参与率下降的至少10%。
Summary Within a decade, the share of households refusing to participate in the Current Population Survey (CPS) tripled. We show households that refuse 1 month but respond in an adjacent month account for an important part of the rise. Leveraging the labor force status of survey participants in the months surrounding their nonresponse, we find that rising refusals suppressed the measured labor force participation rate and employment–population ratio but had little effect on the unemployment rate. Notably, nonresponse bias accounts for at least 10% of the reported decline in the labor force participation rate from 2000 to 2020.