Out of the Darkness and into the Light? Development Effects of Rural Electrification
基于印度全国电气化计划RGGVY覆盖40多万村庄的数据，使用断点回归和双重差分法发现，该计划虽扩大了电力接入，但3-5年内经济影响有限；全面电气化在小村庄降低福利，在大村庄内部回报率达33%。
Nearly 1 billion people still lack electricity access. Developing countries are investing billions of dollars in “last-mile” electrification, although evidence on its economic impacts is mixed. We estimate the development effects of rural electrification in the context of India’s national electrification program, RGGVY (Rajiv Gandhi Grameen Vidyutikaran Yojana), which reached over 400, 000 villages. Using regression-discontinuity and difference-in-differences designs, we estimate that RGGVY meaningfully expanded electricity access. However, the program generated limited economic impacts after 3–5 years. Scaling our intent-to-treat estimates using instrumental variables, we find that “full electrification” reduces welfare in small villages but has a 33% internal rate of return in large villages.