Project Robustness: Conceptualization, Measurement, and Implications for Decision Making
本文定义了项目稳健性的四个关键特征（抵抗、稳定、可恢复、目标达成复杂性），提出了测量方法，并展示了如何利用该测量改进项目评估和执行阶段的决策，减少乐观偏差。
Recognizing the need for defining and measuring project robustness, the purpose of this paper is threefold. First, it attempts to rigorously define the term “project robustness” based on the key characteristics of a robust project. Second, this paper aims to propose a measure of project robustness that aligns with the new definition. Third, using empirical evidence, this paper illustrates how the new measure of robustness can make a difference to decision-making in the project appraisal and execution phases. The results of this research highlight that robustness is more than a key property of resilience; rather, it is a multidimensional construct that includes a set of four necessary characteristics (i.e., resistance, stability, recoverability, and goal attainment complexity) deemed vital to tackle disruptions. The results also demonstrate how a combination of these characteristics can be integrated into decision-making in the project management context. This paper contributes to the research on decision-making by mitigating optimism bias in projects, transitioning from heuristic to analytic decision-making. It achieves this by leveraging the relevant quantitative evidence regarding the disruption and recovery profile of a highly comparable project, thereby avoiding flawed judgments.