Asymmetric crime dynamics in and out of lockdowns
研究印度比哈尔邦因新冠疫情实施的临时社交限制政策对犯罪活动的动态影响，发现封锁导致犯罪立即下降超35%，但对不同犯罪类型影响不对称：人身犯罪减少更有效，而财产犯罪在解封后反弹至封锁前水平以上，且由惯犯而非新犯驱动。
Abstract This article studies the dynamic impact of a temporary policy restricting social encounters due to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) on criminal activity in Bihar, India. Using a regression discontinuity design in time and criminal case—level and arrest data, I document an immediate drop in crime of over 35% due to the lockdown. Analysis over a longer timespan shows asymmetric dynamics by crime type. The lockdown was more effective in preventing personal crimes such as murders but was less effective in preventing property crimes, which increased beyond pre-lockdown levels once the lockdown was lifted. The increase in property crimes seems to be driven by temporal crime displacement from “former offenders” and not by “new offenders.” These asymmetric dynamics across crime types provide new insights into criminals’ intertemporal decisions.