城市特征、土地价格与波动性

City characteristics, land prices and volatility

Journal of Urban Economics · 2024
被引 1
人大 AABS 3

中文导读

构建了一个模型,描述城市特征如何影响房地产租金和价值的波动性,发现增长约束会放大短期租金波动但抑制长期影响,对理解城市房价波动有参考价值。

Abstract

We develop a model that describes how city characteristics affect the volatility of real estate rents and values. The model includes agglomeration externalities, which amplify the effect of productivity shocks on population growth and rents, as well as city characteristics that constrain population growth. While growth constraints make rents more subject to productivity shocks because of the inelastic supply, they can also suppress the benefits of agglomeration, which has the effect of decreasing the sensitivity of rents to productivity shocks. Our dynamic model exhibits persistent rent growth and rent-to-value ratios that vary across cities and over time. In particular, we show that productivity shocks have a larger initial effect on rents in more constrained cities, but a greater long-term effect in less constrained cities.

城市特征土地价格波动集聚外部性增长约束