Mental Models and Learning: The Case of Base-Rate Neglect
实验发现，在基础率忽视的经典更新问题中，即使有充分反馈机会，错误行为仍持续存在，原因在于错误的心智模型导致对初始答案过度自信，限制了从反馈中学习。
We experimentally document persistence of suboptimal behavior despite ample opportunities to learn from feedback in a canonical updating problem where people suffer from base-rate neglect. Our results provide insights on the mechanisms hindering learning from feedback. Importantly, our results suggest mistakes are more likely to be persistent when they are driven by incorrect mental models that miss or misrepresent important aspects of the environment. Such models induce confidence in initial answers, limiting engagement with and learning from feedback. We substantiate these insights in an alternative scenario where individuals involved in a voting problem overlook the importance of being pivotal.