Preemptive austerity with rollover risk
研究了政府通过提前增税来防范主权债务展期危机的政策，该政策成功消除了危机信号，但事后并非最优，最终政府会逐步降低债务水平。
By preemptive austerity, we mean a policy that increases taxes to deter potential rollover crises. The policy is so successful that the usual danger signal of a rollover crisis, a high yield on new bonds sold, does not show up, because the policy eliminates the danger. Mechanically, high taxes make the safe zone in the model — the set of sovereign debt levels for which the government prefers to repay its debt rather than default — larger. By announcing a high tax rate at the beginning of the period, the government ensures that tax revenue will be high enough to service sovereign debt becoming due, which deters panics by international lenders but is ex-post suboptimal. That is why, as it engages in preemptive austerity, the government continues to reduce the level of debt to a point where, at least asymptotically, high taxes are no longer necessary.