The simple macroeconometrics of the quantity theory and the welfare cost of inflation
基于数量理论，用单方程误差修正模型检验货币供求关系，发现美国年度M2数据最支持经典齐次性命题，但福利成本与英国数据相似，均低于GDP的1%。
The quantity theory of money hypothesizes that the price level is determined through the equilibration of money supply and demand. Predicated on this causal structure, a single-equation error correction model decomposes from a larger vector autoregressive system so as to make available bounds tests for a levels relationship that are robust to the univariate integration properties of the variables. This model is estimated using three monetary aggregates and two money demand specifications, for U.S. and U.K. annual data over the past century and quarterly post-WWII data. The classic homogeneity propositions of the quantity theory are testable, and are found to be most compatible with U.S. annual M2 using log-log money demand with structural change permitted. Nevertheless, the resulting welfare costs are similar to those yielded by the U.K. annual data, being less than one percent of GDP at interest rates experienced during the past century.