Inflation in times of overlapping emergencies: Systemically significant prices from an input–output perspective
通过投入产出模型模拟价格冲击，识别出美国经济中对货币稳定具有系统重要性的价格，发现能源、基础生产投入、基本必需品和商业基础设施四类部门的价格在疫情和乌克兰战争期间表现一致，并提出经济稳定需超越货币政策，针对这些部门制定政策。
Abstract In the overlapping global emergencies of the pandemic, climate change and geopolitical confrontations, supply shocks have become frequent and inflation has returned. This raises the question of how sector-specific shocks are related to overall price stability. This paper simulates price shocks in an input–output model to identify sectors which present systemic vulnerabilities for monetary stability in the United States. We call these prices systemically significant. We find that in our simulations the pre-pandemic average price volatilities and the price shocks in the COVID-19 and Ukraine war inflation yield an almost identical set of systemically significant prices. The sectors with systemically significant prices fall into four groups: energy, basic production inputs other than energy, basic necessities, and commercial infrastructure. Specifically, they are “Petroleum and coal products,” “Oil and gas extraction,” “Utilities,” “Chemical products,” “Farms,” “Food and beverage and tobacco products,” “Housing,” and “Wholesale trade.” We argue that in times of overlapping emergencies, economic stabilization needs to go beyond monetary policy and requires institutions and policies that can target these systemically significant sectors.