The development of bio-based industry in the European Union: A prospective integrated modelling assessment
该研究构建了包含五个先进模型的工具包，模拟欧盟生物基产业转型，发现推广生物质可减少化石依赖，但碳税和消费行为变化对减排和市场平衡至关重要。
Quantitative bioeconomy simulation models aid our understanding of the complex market driven dynamics accompanying the transition to a net-zero economy. This research addresses knowledge gaps in EU bioeconomy modelling capacity, particularly representations of contemporary bio-based industrial markets. Encompassing a comprehensive selection of biomass types and bioeconomy activities, an integrated model toolbox is constructed consisting of five state-of-the-art bioeconomy simulation models. Focusing on a public-policy driven bio-based industrial transformation, exploratory scenarios examine the synergies and trade-offs for the EU through the prism of its five bioeconomy pillars. Results indicate that the promotion of biomass for industry reduces fossil dependence, although if enacted globally, may result in a substantial increase in biomass demand. In addition, carbon taxes further accelerate market opportunities for bio-based alternatives, although a bio-based industry transformation contingent, at least in part, on woody and agricultural biomass feedstocks, will not achieve important reductions in emissions. Finally, in addition to a strict adherence to the principle of circularity in biomass usage, a socially responsible change in consumption behaviour represents an essential strategy for easing (agricultural) biomass market tensions.