卖房的进出:理解住房市场波动

THE INS AND OUTS OF SELLING HOUSES: UNDERSTANDING HOUSING‐MARKET VOLATILITY

International Economic Review · 2024
被引 10
人大 AABS 4

中文导读

分解新房源(流入)和销售(流出)对住房市场波动的贡献,发现两者都很重要,并用搜索匹配模型解释了变量间的稳定和时变相关性。

Abstract

Abstract This article documents the role of inflows (new listings) and outflows (sales) in explaining the volatility and comovement of housing‐market variables. An “ins versus outs” decomposition shows that both flows are quantitatively important for housing‐market volatility. The correlations between sales, prices, new listings, and time‐to‐sell are stable over time, whereas the signs of their correlations with houses for sale are found to be time‐varying. A calibrated search‐and‐matching model with endogenous inflows and outflows and shocks to housing demand matches many of the stable correlations and predicts that the correlations with houses for sale depend on the source and persistence of shocks.

住房市场波动新房源销售搜索匹配模型