Public-Transportation Credits: The potential of three-part tariffs in public transportation
研究了瑞士2023年推出的公共交通积分（PTC）这种三部定价模式，通过随机实验和机器学习匹配发现，PTC能显著提升收入，每份积分带来约179.7瑞士法郎的增收。
In December 2023, public-transportation providers in Switzerland introduced Public-Transportation Credits (PTCs). PTCs are credits (or “allowances”) that are greater in amount than their price and can be used to purchase any type of public-transportation tickets within a year. With the initial fixed payment, the subsequent use of the allowance and the eventual return to the standard fare, PTCs represent three-part tariff models. We explore the potential of PTCs to target particularly elastic segments of the demand curve, simultaneously allowing for increased consumption and higher revenue. To assess the revenue impact of the PTC empirically, we analyze a pilot study conducted by the Swiss public-transportation providers. In a randomized field experiment with 200,000 PTC invitees and 911 actual PTC buyers, we use the dispach of invitations as an instrumental variable. While observing substantial revenue increases, this result is insignificant due to the weak relationship between invitees and buyers. Therefore, we complement our analysis with a selection-on-observable approach, utilizing machine-learning techniques to match PTC buyers to customers in the control group. This way, we reveal a highly significant treatment effect, indicating a revenue enhancement of CHF 179.7 per PTC (approximately USD 200). Leveraging our comprehensive dataset and insights from a non-buyer survey, we predict a demand of around 200,000 units for the market-launch version of the PTC.