MONETARY POLICY UNDER NATURAL DISASTER SHOCKS
研究了自然灾害冲击下央行的最优货币政策，基于34次灾害年份数据和新凯恩斯模型，发现通胀目标制仍是福利最优的，央行应坚持价格稳定而非宽松应对。
Abstract With climate change increasing the frequency and intensity of natural disasters, what should central banks do in response to these catastrophic events? Looking at IMF reports for 34 disaster‐years, which occurred in 16 disaster‐prone countries from 1999 to 2017, reveals lack of any systematic approach adopted by monetary authorities in response to climate shocks. Using a small‐open‐economy New‐Keynesian model with disaster shocks, we show that consistent with textbook theory, inflation targeting remains the welfare‐optimal regime. Therefore, the best strategy for monetary authorities is to resist the impulse of accommodating in response to catastrophic natural disasters, and focus on price stability.