Structural change, labour reallocation, and productivity growth in post-reform China
研究中国改革后结构红利为何较小，利用1993-2016年省级数据发现，仅劳动力从农业转向制造业和服务业的省份获得劳动生产率的增长红利，而资本和劳动力重新配置对全要素生产率增长作用有限，增长主要来自部门内技术进步。
Abstract Why has the structural bonus been so small during China’s post-reform era? This article explains the puzzle by exploiting the heterogeneity in structural-change patterns across Chinese provinces. Using an original database covering production and factor inputs in 8 sectors and 31 provinces over 1993–2016, I show only those provinces where labour was reallocated from agriculture to manufacturing and services benefited from a structural bonus on labour productivity growth. In the other provinces, this structural-change effect was minimal or negative. Regarding the structural-change effect on total factor productivity (TFP) growth, I find both labour and capital reallocation played a limited role. Labour reallocation has little potential in boosting aggregate TFP growth, as marginal labour returns are similar across sectors. Capital reallocation has a far greater potential but remains restrained, suggesting substantial reallocation frictions. China’s TFP growth is mostly explained by within-sector technological progress, which has been dissipating since 2008, leading to declining TFP growth.