The effect of cross‐border shopping on commodity tax revenue: results from Norway's COVID‐19 border closings
利用挪威COVID-19边境关闭的准自然实验，发现跨境购物使全国增值税收入减少3.6%，含糖饮料和香烟的税收降幅更大，影响范围可达边境两小时车程。
Abstract We use grocery data from Norway and COVID‐19 border closings to gauge the effect of cross‐border shopping on commodity tax revenue. Detailed store–category‐level data identify differential treatment effects that depend on distance to Swedish stores. Economically significant effects extend to up to two hours' drive from the border, and even further for prominent cross‐border shopping products, such as beer, cigarettes, and carbonated soft drinks. Across all products, cross‐border shopping decreases tax revenue from VAT by 3.6 percent at the national level. National commodity tax revenue from carbonated soft drinks (subject to a sugar tax) is reduced by 8.1 percent and from cigarettes by 11.9 percent.