The valuation of delays in passenger rail using journey satisfaction data
利用英国国家铁路乘客调查的满意度数据，通过有序逻辑模型估计到达和出发延误的乘客价值，发现延误每分钟相当于4-9分钟计划行程时间。
Stated preference surveys are typically used to derive lateness multipliers, defined as a trade-off between a minute of lateness and scheduled journey time. This study aims to use a novel in the context of lateness valuation dataset (i.e. responses from a survey on journey satisfaction) to apply it to the established methodologies. Travel satisfaction data from National Rail Passenger Survey in Great Britain is used to estimate the impacts of scheduled journey time and delay on passenger satisfaction. An ordered logit model with origin–destination pair fixed effects is estimated and lateness multipliers are subsequently derived. The estimated values are slightly larger than previously suggested, ranging from 4 to 9 for arrival delay (i.e. a minute of arrival delay is valued as an equivalent of 4–9 min of scheduled journey time) and 2 to 6 for departure delay. This study offers a degree of novelty in terms of the type of data used in the estimation process and highlights the potential of satisfaction surveys in economic valuation in transport.