The Risk of Narrow, Disputable Results in the U.S. Electoral College
研究量化了美国总统选举中选举团制度导致极微弱胜出的概率，发现该制度比普选更易产生接近结果，可能削弱民主合法性并增加政治暴力风险。
Abstract Close elections are important for many reasons, including that consequent election disputes can weaken democratic legitimacy and risk political violence. We quantify the probability of close outcomes in US presidential races with novel applications of empirical election models from several sources. We show that razor-thin margins are very likely under the Electoral College (EC). And we establish that the EC causes this closeness: It would not occur under any plausibly comparable popular vote system. The tendency of the EC to generate close elections is found today and throughout US presidential voting history.