Capital flow dynamics and the synchronization of financial cycles and business cycles in emerging market economies
研究了新兴市场经济体中资本流动、金融周期和商业周期的动态关系，发现资本流动周期更波动且领先于其他周期，为央行政策组合提供指导。
This study assesses the dynamics of capital flow, financial cycles, and business cycles in Emerging Market Economies (EMEs). We show that: (a) capital flow cycles tend to be more volatile than financial and business cycles, (b) although significant heterogeneities exist in the dynamics of these cycles across EMEs, financial and business cycles tend to be similar in terms of amplitudes, (c) significant concordance exists between different cycles and between the same cycles across countries, and (d) capital flow cycles tend to lead financial and business cycles. These findings provide clear guidance on the use of central bank policy mix strategy in response to capital flows, financial, and business cycles. Our results also imply strong interconnection between EMEs, in the sense that they appear to simultaneously experience expansions and recessions.