A simulation-based risk interaction network model for risk management in international construction projects
针对国际建筑项目中风险相互关联且随时间变化的复杂性，提出一个基于模拟的风险交互网络框架，通过两阶段方法识别关键风险，并用实例验证其有效性。
The inherent complexity in International Construction Projects (ICPs) brings forth the intricate interactions between risks, invalidating the risk analysis under the conventional perception of independent risks. The diverse phases of ICPs feature the temporal dynamics of risks and interactions, exacerbating the challenge of pinpointing critical risks. This study aims to model how the risks are interconnected and amplified by proposing an ICP risk management framework, in which the project phase-based Risk Interaction Network (RIN) is constructed. An integrated index is designed to evaluate each risk’s criticality and discern key risks within a two-part procedure, where the simulation-based model estimates risk sensitivity to predecessor risks and captures the stochasticity of risk occurring, and network analysis gauges risk spread power on the entire network. An example of an application is provided to illustrate the utility of the proposed framework.