Can Words Speak Louder Than Actions? Using Top Management Teams’ Language to Predict Myopic Marketing Spending
通过分析高管在财报电话会议中的语言（营销和盈利强调），提前一年预测公司削减营销和研发支出的短视行为，为投资者和董事会提供早期干预机会。
Myopic marketing spending—curtailing marketing and research and development expenses to boost earnings—damages firms’ long-term value. Despite this, top management teams are often myopic, and by the time investors or boards detect such short-termism, it is too late to react or intervene. This research introduces a novel prediction method by analyzing the language top management teams use in earnings calls, specifically focusing on marketing and earnings emphasis, to predict future instances of myopic marketing spending. Through linguistic dependency parsing of almost 11 million sentences extracted from nearly 25,000 quarterly earnings call transcripts of 1,197 firms between 2008 and 2019, the authors demonstrate that the proposed approach can predict myopic marketing spending at a quarterly frequency for up to one year in advance. They find that an increase of one standard deviation in earnings emphasis is associated with a 23.68% increase in the likelihood of future myopic marketing spending. Investments based on the proposed approach produce 1.61% additional annual abnormal returns compared with models that exclusively use known predictors of myopic marketing spending, while offering earlier foresight and more frequent opportunities for intervention. This reduces information asymmetry for investors and boards of directors.