Extrapolative Uncertainty and Household Economic Behavior
研究家庭如何从个人和当地环境的不稳定性外推宏观不确定性，并发现这种外推行为在低计算能力人群中更显著，且影响消费、股市参与和信贷担忧。
We examine the uncertainty in households’ expectations regarding macroeconomic outcomes, namely inflation and the rate of nationwide home price growth. We document that people extrapolate from the instability of their personal and local environment when assessing the future volatility of these macroeconomic variables. Consequently, there are within-person spillovers in subjective uncertainty regarding different economic outcomes. This extrapolative behavior is more pronounced among lower-numeracy individuals, and it persists throughout the business cycle. People with more uncertain macroeconomic expectations are more likely to engage in precautionary behaviors regarding consumption and equity market exposure and are more concerned about credit market access. This paper was accepted by David Simchi-Levi, finance. Supplemental Material: The data files are available at https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2023.00820 .