Determinants of the Credit Cycle: A Flow Analysis of the Extensive Margin
利用意大利二十年的贷款级数据，发现信贷波动主要由借款人数量变化驱动，且借款人流入具有顺周期性并领先经济周期，同时信贷需求增加会导致贷款标准放松和不良贷款上升。
Abstract Examining two decades of loan‐level data on Italian bank loans to households and businesses, we find that credit fluctuations primarily result from changes in the number of borrowers (extensive margin). Employing a flow approach, we decompose the extensive margin into inflows and outflows, revealing that borrower inflows significantly contribute to total borrower volatility. Moreover, borrower inflows exhibit greater volatility than outflows, are procyclical, and lead the business cycle. Utilizing a shift‐and‐share instrument derived from sectoral borrower inflows, our findings reveal that local markets experiencing increased credit demand exhibit a loosening of lending standards and a rise in bad loans. This sheds light on the intricate relationship between credit demand and financial instability at the local level.