Measuring Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture: An Equilibrium Perspective on Supply-Side Approaches
本文通过全球农业贸易模型，检验了供给侧回归假设价格不变的合理性，发现忽略价格变化会低估气候变化成本，福利结果甚至可能符号相反。
Climate change impacts on agriculture are mostly estimated by supply-side reduced-form regressions, under the implicit assumption of constant crop prices. To test whether this assumption is innocuous, I use a quantitative trade model of global agricultural markets to emulate the findings of a supply-side approach and to calculate welfare changes accounting for price changes. The results show that both welfare measures are weakly correlated and can be of opposite signs and that the supply-side approach tends to underestimate the cost of climate change because of the imperfect substitutability of crops in demand.