Are Simultaneously Decided Referenda Substitutable? Evidence from Municipal Land Use Ballot Measures
研究了市政土地利用公投中，竞争性措施如何影响选民支持，发现反增长措施之间具有替代性，而亲增长措施则无此效应。
The results of ballot referenda have often been used to infer the preferences of voters for various types of policy. However, voters may be influenced by the appearance of competing ballot referenda. We propose a simple theoretical framework for considering the substitutability or complementarity of various land use policies and apply this framework to a novel dataset of 603 land-related municipal ballot measures in California. We find that the appearance of a competing anti-growth measure decreases support for other anti-growth measures, while the appearance of pro-growth measures do not affect the likelihood of passage for anti-growth or pro-growth measures.