Honey Bees, Almonds, and Colony Mortality: An Economic Simulation of the U.S. Pollination Market
构建了美国蜜蜂授粉与蜂蜜生产市场的模拟模型，发现杏仁种植面积增加对授粉费用影响不大，而冬季死亡率上升会导致早季授粉费用增加、晚季费用下降。
Motivated by increasing threats to pollinator health and increasing pollination contract fees, we develop a simulation model for the honey bee pollination and honey production market. The model, calibrated using 2015 and 2016 data, incorporates population dynamics, 15 crops, and transportation of managed honey bee colonies across several states. In our model, forage that bees need is particularly scarce, and further increases in almond acreage will have little effect on the fees paid for pollination services. However, increases in bees’ winter mortality will lead to increases in early-season pollination fees and declines in late-season fees.