Ambiguity Aversion and Heterogeneity in Households’ Beliefs
研究发现希望通胀和名义利率降低的英国家庭反而预期通胀更高，通过新凯恩斯模型解释为模糊厌恶家庭受不确定性影响，信念被愿望扭曲，且不确定性带来显著产出成本。
UK households that wish for lower inflation and lower nominal interest rates have higher expected inflation. We interpret the evidence through the lens of a New Keynesian model where ambiguity-averse households differ in wealth, skill, labor market participation, and the receipt of government transfers and are subject to Knightian uncertainty. Households act based on beliefs that are negatively affected by their wishes, the more so the greater the amount of uncertainty. Using indirect inference, we find substantial output costs due to uncertainty. Monetary policy uncertainty contributes little to the costs because households generally dislike monetary expansions.