Unpacking Private Equity Performance
分析了私募股权基金业绩评估中因缺乏流动市场、依赖现金流和净资产估值、以及使用信贷额度和资本回收等做法带来的挑战，并通过模拟基金说明这些因素如何影响内部收益率和投资倍数等常用指标。
Performance analysis of private equity funds is challenging because fund ownership does not trade in a liquid market with observable prices. Instead, performance analysis—especially during a fund’s life—must rely on observed cash flows to and from the fund and quarterly net asset value (NAV) estimates. Further complicating the analysis are the increasingly common practices of funds using subscription lines of credit (fund-level debt) and recycling capital. Even the variation in the timing of capital deployment across funds has important implications for common performance measures used to evaluate funds, such as internal rate of return (IRR) and multiple on invested capital (MOIC). In this article, the authors analyze a set of simulated funds to better understand how fund performance analysis is affected by these common issues. Overall, the analysis suggests that intermediate IRRs—that is, values likely observed during fundraising periods for subsequent funds—are strongly affected by subscription lines and deployment pacing. Intermediate MOICs are only weakly affected by subscription lines but are strongly affected by capital deployment pacing. Both IRRs and MOICs are strongly affected by recycle deal accounting methodology. The authors conclude that investors need to be cognizant of these issues when measuring and utilizing fund performance measures during the life of a fund as well as when assessing ultimate performance at the end of fund life.