Net-Zero Policy vs Energy Security: The Impact on GCC Countries
研究了2008-2018年海湾合作委员会四国石油出口组合的风险，发现进口国可再生能源份额上升会显著影响石油出口组合风险，并减少油价波动对进口国的不利影响。
Gulf Cooperation Council countries have accumulated large oil portfolio revenues. However, the world economy is seeking to reduce carbon emissions, and in turn, its reliance on fossil fuel resources through investments in renewable energyresources. The aim of this research is to analyze oil portfolio risk from anexporters’perspective, highlighting how relevant determinants, such as the increasing penetration of renewables in the importer counterparties, and financial and policy uncertainty, increase the volatility of oil export portfolios.We construct oil portfolios for four Gulf Cooperation Council countries (Kuwait, Oman, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates) from 2008 to 2018, and compute volatility spillovers à la Diebold and Yilmaz. Then, the effects of policy and economic variables on volatility spillover indices are estimated using different panel linear regression models. We find rising renewable market shares significantly affects oil export portfolio risks and reduces adverse impacts on importing countries of oil market fluctuations.