An options-pricing approach to forecasting the French presidential election
本文提出将民调投票率估计视为市场价格，利用期权定价、投票转移和蒙特卡洛方法预测法国总统选举，适用于两轮投票制，并发现马克龙在2017和2022年选举中占据主导地位但首轮无法直接胜出。
A subjective probability argument suggests vote-share estimates from polling companies can be interpreted as market prices.The corresponding election constitutes the price at a known future date.This makes an options-pricing approach particularly attractive.In this setting, vote-share estimates, the probability of winning the popular vote and the secondround qualification probability all have a convenient representation in terms of binary options prices.In this article, we develop options-pricing, vote-transfer, and Monte Carlo methods to forecast the French presidential election.The approach fits well with the proportional and regimented two-stage nature of the French election but applies more broadly.Unusually for a French system characterised by uncertainty and constant flux the incumbent President Macron appears in a dominant position throughout the 2017 and 2022 elections albeit with no chance of an outright win in the first round.