Fertility and long‐term economic growth
使用137个国家数据，发现生育率先降低后提高经济增长，长期平均效应显著为正，反驳了以往研究认为生育率对增长负面或无影响的结论。
Abstract Empirical studies have generally found that higher fertility has a negative or insignificant effect on economic growth. This article argues that this is because existing studies have failed to capture the long‐term lagged effects of fertility. By estimating a long‐term lagged panel model using data from 137 countries, I find that higher fertility first reduces and then increases economic growth, and the long‐term average effect is significantly positive. This finding is robust when focusing on countries at different development levels, exploiting exogenous fertility shocks from global family planning campaigns, and capitalizing on within‐country fertility variation resulting from China's one‐child policy.