The heterogeneous role of party affiliation in the runner‐up effect
研究发现亚军效应(第二名候选人在未来选举中表现优于第三名)存在异质性:只有无主要政党支持的亚军才有显著优势,表明政党和选民会考虑政党背景作为候选人质量的信号。
Summary A recent finding establishes that second‐place candidates perform substantially better over third‐place candidates in future electoral races. We show that this estimated effect masks substantial heterogeneity with respect to the party affiliation of the candidates. Only runner‐ups without a major party backing in election have significant prospects over the third‐place candidates in election , in terms of either recontesting or winning. Our finding suggests that political parties and voters, while strategically coordinating on the runner‐ups in election , also take into account the party backing as a potential signal of their intrinsic quality.