Risk of road traffic injury in Norway 1970–2022
本文分析了挪威1970-2022年道路交通伤害风险的变化，发现致命和人身伤害风险下降超70%，可能源于官方统计报告减少、防护改善和医疗进步，但保险数据未显示事故风险降低。
This paper describes changes in the risk of road traffic injury in Norway during the period from 1970 to 2022. During this period, the risk of fatal and personal injury declined by more than 70 % for most groups of road users. There are five main potential explanations of a decline in the risk of injury: (1) a reduced probability of accidents that have the potential for causing injury; (2) an improved protection against injury given that an accident has occurred; (3) improved medical care increasing the survival rate, given an injury (this would reduce the number of fatalities, but not the number of injuries); (4) a tendency for the reporting of injuries in official accident statistics to decline over time; (5) uncertain or erroneous estimates of the exposure to the risk of injury. The decline in the risk of road traffic injuries in Norway after 1970 can probably be attributed to a combination of reduced reporting of injuries in official statistics, improved protection against injury in accidents, and (for fatal injuries) improved medical care. Insurance data, available from 1992, do not indicate a reduction in the risk of accidents leading to insurance claims. Incomplete and possibly erroneous data for mopeds and motorcycles make it impossible to identify sources of changes in injury risk over time for these modes of transport.