非标准误差

Nonstandard Errors

Journal of Finance · 2024
被引 76 · 同刊同年前 5%
人大 A+FT50UTD24ABS 4*

中文导读

研究指出,不同研究者分析同一数据时产生的额外不确定性(非标准误差)很大,但可重复性高或评级高的研究误差较小,同行评审能减少这种误差。

Abstract

ABSTRACT In statistics, samples are drawn from a population in a data‐generating process (DGP). Standard errors measure the uncertainty in estimates of population parameters. In science, evidence is generated to test hypotheses in an evidence‐generating process (EGP). We claim that EGP variation across researchers adds uncertainty—nonstandard errors (NSEs). We study NSEs by letting 164 teams test the same hypotheses on the same data. NSEs turn out to be sizable, but smaller for more reproducible or higher rated research. Adding peer‐review stages reduces NSEs. We further find that this type of uncertainty is underestimated by participants.

非标准误差证据生成过程研究可重复性同行评审