The Impact of Weather Risk on Tenure Security
利用坦桑尼亚农户面板数据和高分辨率降水数据，研究发现天气风险显著降低小农户的土地权属安全感并增加土地冲突，同时影响土地证书获取，表明需结合土地正规化与纠纷解决机制应对天气风险。
We analyze whether exposure to weather risk affects the tenure security of smallholder farmers in rural Tanzania. Drawing on a household panel survey with three waves and high-resolution weather data, our identification strategy exploits exogenous variation in precipitation across time and space. Results from household fixed effects estimations show that exposure to weather risk significantly lowers farmers’ perceived tenure security, while it increases land conflicts. Moreover, weather risk influences the likelihood that farmers acquire land certificates. These findings suggest that both land formalization and land dispute resolution mechanisms are needed to cushion the effects of weather risk.