A new method for measuring industrial chain risk exposure: A regional perspective in China
提出产业链风险暴露的新概念和度量方法，利用多区域投入产出表分析中国各地区2002-2017年需求侧和供给侧的风险暴露及风险回报比，发现内陆地区国内风险高、沿海地区全球风险高，高技术制造业风险更大。
Abstract We extend the existing framework for decomposition of production length structure in global value chains and propose a novel concept and measure of industrial chain risk exposure on both the demand‐side and supply‐side at the region‐sector level in China. Using data from WIOD, ADB‐MRIOT, and China's multi‐regional input‐output tables, we measure and analyze the industrial chain risk exposures, and risk‐return ratios on the demand‐side and supply‐side of each region‐sector in China from 2002 to 2017. Our results reveal the following key insights: First, inland regions exhibit high domestic industrial chain risk exposures, while coastal regions have high global industrial chain risk exposures, a pattern consistent at the region‐industry level. Furthermore, demand‐side industrial chain risk exposures surpass supply‐side exposures within region‐sectors. Second, High‐tech manufacturing industries display greater risk exposure compared to other sectors. Third, Guangdong and Shanghai, as the main regions of China's international trade, share similar global industrial chain risk exposures to those of Germany and South Korea. Fourth, the bilateral demand‐side exposures of the industrial chains in each region are asymmetric.