Crime over the welfare payment cycle
利用荷兰市政数据，研究发现福利支付周期内经济犯罪增加12%，非经济犯罪（如性犯罪、暴力犯罪和酒驾）在福利发放后立即达到峰值，表明福利发放后消费激增引发犯罪。
Abstract This study examines criminal behavior over the welfare payment cycle. Using unique individual‐level administrative data on welfare recipients, we exploit exogenous variation in payment dates over time and across Dutch municipalities. The results suggest that financially motivated crime increases by 12% over the payment cycle, indicating serious financial constraints toward the end of the month. Non‐financially motivated offenses, particularly sex and violent offenses and driving under the influence offenses (DUIs), peak directly after benefits receipt and decrease over the payment cycle, suggesting an underlying spike in consumption conducive to crime. Public order offenses and DUIs also increase with weekend disbursement.