Dynamic hysteresis effects
研究了产出缺口如何随时间影响潜在产出，即动态滞后效应，通过新模型分离长期衰退不利影响，发现1970年代后滞后效应显著，且全球金融危机和新冠疫情衰退的长期负面效应被稳健识别。
We study how the output gap affects potential output over time— i.e. , the dynamic hysteresis effect. To do so, we introduce novel unobserved components (UC) models that consider hysteresis as a sequence of lagged effects, thus separating the long-run recession-induced adverse effects from other trend-cycle interactions. The proposed models nest several existing UC models in the literature and accommodate two key characteristics of output dynamics: non-neutrality in the long-run and time-to-build effects. Using Bayesian estimation methods, we find robust evidence supporting the presence of hysteresis effects after the 1970s, with the negative long-run effect of the Global Financial Crisis and the COVID-19 recessions robustly identified. Via Bayesian model averaging, we provide precise and intuitive output gap estimates that highlight the relationship between business cycle fluctuations and the decline in economic growth. Our findings indicate that output trend-cycle decompositions that do not consider hysteresis effects can alter stabilization policy trade-offs.