Estimating the direct rebound effect for residential electricity use in seventeen European countries: Short and long-run perspectives
基于1996-2020年17个欧洲国家的面板数据，使用动态面板方法估计居民用电的直接反弹效应，短期为18%，长期为43%，为政策制定者设计节能政策提供参考。
The energy saved by improving the building efficiency of European households may not be as much as expected due to a rebound effect. Based on Eurostat and World Bank annual panel data covering the period 1996–2020, this article develops dynamic panel approaches, a generalized method of moments, and first-difference specifications, to investigate the direct rebound effect of residential electricity consumption in selected European countries. Instrumental variable techniques are used to tackle the reverse causality of the electricity price in a demand model. Estimates of the direct rebound effect in residential electricity use are 18% in the short-run and 43% in the long-run. Our findings reject the hypothesis of a backfire effect in residential electricity demand. They have important implications for policy makers, suggesting the need for smart policies that consider energy consumption behaviors and decision-making processes among various households. Graphical abstract • We estimate the direct rebound effect for residential electricity use in Europe. • We explore short and long-run direct rebound effects using FD and GMM approaches. • We use 1996–2020 annual panel data for 17 European countries. • The short-run direct rebound effect is estimated at 18%, the long-run effect at 43%. • We suggest rebound mitigation strategies to design more effective energy policies.