Central Banks, Stock Markets, and the Real Economy
本文总结了货币政策与资产市场互动的实证研究,并提出了一个简洁模型,说明央行如何通过稳定资产价格来应对金融冲击,以及这种干预对经济活动和市场波动的影响。
In this article, we summarize empirical research on the interaction between monetary policy and asset markets and review our previous theoretical work that captures these interactions. We present a concise model in which monetary policy impacts the aggregate asset price, which in turn influences economic activity with lags. In this context, the following occurs: ( a ) the central bank (the Fed, for short) stabilizes the aggregate asset price in response to financial shocks, using large-scale asset purchases if needed (the Fed put); ( b ) when the Fed is constrained, negative financial shocks cause demand recessions; ( c ) the Fed's response to aggregate demand shocks increases asset price volatility, but this volatility plays a useful macroeconomic stabilization role; ( d ) the Fed's beliefs about the future aggregate demand and supply drive the aggregate asset price; ( e ) macroeconomic news influences the Fed's beliefs and asset prices; ( f ) more precise news reduces output volatility but heightens asset market volatility; and ( g ) disagreements between the market and the Fed provide a microfoundation for monetary policy shocks and generate a policy risk premium.