Gains from trade: Demand, supply, and idiosyncratic shocks
研究发现，用企业销售额代理生产率会高估贸易福利收益，因为销售额受暂时性需求和供给冲击影响。本文提出利用单一来源国的收入生产函数来获得无偏的生产率、贸易弹性及福利收益估计。
Summary Firm‐level sales are often used as a proxy for productivity to quantify welfare gains from trade (GFT) using firm‐level data. This approach ignores the fact that heterogeneity in firm‐level sales is driven by factors other than productivity. Our theoretical and empirical analysis reveals that using sales as a proxy conflates persistent productivity with transitory demand and supply shocks, resulting in an over‐dispersed productivity distribution. Assigning this shock‐inflated productivity to a modeled economy's supply‐side results in overestimated GFT. We show how to obtain unbiased productivity estimates, aggregate trade elasticities, and GFT estimates by exploiting the revenue production function from a single‐source country.